Comments for Betfair System

Comment on Betfair Promotion Codes by exelei

exelei — Fri, 09 Nov 2012 18:42:12 +0000

C6HVUVLPh

Comment on Laying the Draw System by Beefdripin

Beefdripin — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:59:33 +0000

More observational than hard research – the system suggests hedging at 0-0 to minimse potential losses, however this assumes that the probability of a draw increases proportionally over time. I appreciate that this is how the exchanges generally behave but the reality is there are more goals scored in the last 30mins than the first 30mins. This looks like an opportunity to enter this market at 60/75 minutes when 0-0 and the odds of a draw are now <2.00. A goal at that stage would provide significant arbitrage profits ("green book") and should the game end 0-0, the losses are no greater than the "closed" bet in the original example.

Comment on Laying the Draw System by druss

druss — Tue, 11 Sep 2012 20:28:24 +0000

I have currently laid the draw in the current england vs ukraine match @ 3.56 ! unfortunately ukraine is up 1-0 and the odds to back the draw are only at 3.4 even at the 68 minute mark ! what do you suggest at this stage , when the underdog scores and only has a one goal advantage? Thanks!

Comment on Laying the Draw System by Eksing

Eksing — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 21:17:11 +0000

#31:

Never mind. I got it. It was too simpel

5/3.5 = 1.429

Comment on Laying the Draw System by Eksing

Eksing — Thu, 06 Sep 2012 20:59:10 +0000

#24 Betfair System:
How do you calculate the perfect stake ratio?

Comment on Laying the Draw System by JG

JG — Sat, 01 Sep 2012 08:42:44 +0000

You can scientifically analyse the statistics until you are blue in the face. In my opinion, this is a crap strategy for various reasons. In order to make money out of this, one or more of the odds have to be wrong. I understand that many many years ago, there was an over-reaction in the market when a goal was scored – but surely if you just backed the draw at this point, you would have made money, as this is the market error. You can suggest picking games that are unlikely to finish 0-0, but the chances of a match finishing 0-0 is reflected in the odds already. If you believe from looking at sci-bet that the market is wrong and a goal is much more likely than the odds in betfair show, then why not simply lay 0-0? MAJOR problems occur also if the underdogs score first and the likelyhood of a draw increase. To make money, there has to be a mistake in the market somewhere. This system is so old and so well known. Do you honestly think that if this was making any money, people would be sharing this knowledge? I think this is a publicity stunt from betfair to get foolish people to trade and increase their revenues.

Comment on Laying the Draw System by LM

LM — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 20:44:00 +0000

I want to get into this a little more and have been dipping my toe into this strategy. However, this strategy is all about someone scoring first then laying the odds there after as we know… Can someone explain why you wouldnt just bet on at least one goal scored pre-match and bin off laying altogether? Or even just backing the fave to score first?

Comment on Laying the Draw System by JB

JB — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 18:48:13 +0000

Actually, it might work better to lay both the draw and the fav then if the fav scores first you will make more on the fav bet than you lose on the draw bet if you trade both out right after the goal. If there is no goal when it’s getting close to the end of the game then you should be able to trade both out and come out close to even since the fav odds went up at the same rate as the draw odds went down. If the dog scored first then both Draw and fav odds would increase and you would profit from both.

Comment on Laying the Draw System by JB

JB — Tue, 07 Aug 2012 17:21:55 +0000

Interestingly, the odds for the favorite increase at almost the exact same rate as the draw odds decrease. But if the fav scores first it’s odds will decrease by almost exactly twice as much as the draw odds will increase. So if you lay the fav and back the draw before game starts and then trade them both out after some time has passed with no goal you profit on both and if the fav scores before you trade out you can still trade them both out and only lose half as much on the draw as on the fav. You have to be pretty sure that the fav will score first though because if the dog scores first you will lose on both bets. I haven’t actually tried it. I just noticed that fact about the odds movements using BetAngel’s Soccer Mystic odds simulator. You can see it on youtube in the soccer betting vids by “betangel”. So you would want a game where the fav is the home team and significantly more likely to score first.

Comment on Laying the Draw System by Will

Will — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 14:49:43 +0000

Conkers, I know how you feel. It’s all going really well and the winning game build then it all goes wrong.

For me choosing the right games has been most important. And deciding how long to leave the trade open before exiting to stop loses.

If the loses are stopped short profits from winning trade outweigh the loses.